The Dubz Report: Just sneaking by

Friday, August 15, 2008

Just sneaking by

Not only was last year statistically improbable when looking at the standings, but it also got me thinking about if we have, or if we will ever see it again. Intrigued, I took a look at the last 10 years in which the league played a full season (throwing the lock out year away in 98/99). Last year was a fluke of a year, something that only happens every so often. No other 8th seed has even come close to that number 50 Denver put up last year; with 47 being the next highest in 00/01. This may just be a pathetic attempt to make myself feel a little better about missing the playoffs, but nonetheless here are the numbers.
In the last 10 seasons, only one 8th seed in the West has finished with a higher win amount than the Warriors 48, and that was Denver of course last year, with 50.
The average number of wins for 8th seeds in the West over the last 10 seasons is 44.5. 3.5 wins lower than what the warriors finished with last season.

Statistically, the Warriors would have made the playoffs 9 out of 10 years. I call it bad luck that we did not get in last year, but that does not mean I consider it a succesful season. 48 wins is definately a good year, but it can hardly be considered successful if we don't reach the playoffs.
I have previously predicted the Warriors will win 45 games this upcoming season, which would be a little step down from last year's 48. But if they make the playoffs, it has to be considered more successful, especially with the growing pains that most fans are expecting.
45 wins in the last 10 seasons, would have gotten the Warriors into the playoffs 7 times. 2 times missing out, and one time finishing in a tie. Personally, if the warriors get to that number 45, I like our chances at making the playoffs this season.
97/98 - Houston Rockets 41 wins
98/99- lockout year
99/00- Sacramento Kings 44 wins
00/01- Minnesota Timberwolves 47 wins
01/02- Utah Jazz 44 wins
02/03- Phoenix Suns 44 wins
03/04- Denver Nuggets 43 Wins
04/05- Memphis Grizzlies 45 wins
05/06- Sacramento Kings 44 wins
06/07- Golden State Warriors 42 wins
07/08- Denver Nuggets 50 wins

1 comment:

Pointman said...: Great info. I think the Warriors will have a tough time on the road and as a result will be fortunate to reach .500. Hopefully this is enough to sneak into the playoffs, but like last year, there are so many competitive teams in the West that it doesn't seem likely.; August 16, 2008 at 12:25 PM

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Possible Depth Chart for the 2008/2009 season

PG: Marcus Williams/ CJ Watson
SG: Jackson/ Morrow/ Belinelli
SF: Maggette/Azubukie/ Randolph
PF: Harrington/ Wright/ Hendrix
C: Biedrins/ Turiaf/ Perovic

Injuries- Monta Ellis

As we know nothing is set for sure on a Don Nelson run team. We could see Monta, Marcus Williams and CJ all on the court at the same time, just as well as we could see Nellie trot a big lineup out there. One thing i like more about this roster compared to last years, is the depth. The second unit is much stronger and should give our starters some important rest, which was a problem last year. I also expect Azubukie to be the backup for Jackson AND Maggette, rather than Randolph who probably wont get to much playing time this year. Also, i rarely expect to see the combination of Biedrans/Wright on the court together.. I more expect to see Turiaf in the game when Wright is, so Ronny can bang and Wright can grab rebounds. Hopefully Perovic is somehow ridded of our team, and Hendrix gets a little run off the bench.

Western Conference

These are very early predictions, and the picks are subject to change up until the time the season starts. Since other trades will be made and players will be signed, there is a good chance that the predictions will change more than one time. For now though, this is how i believe the Western Conference will shake out... at least for now

1) L.A. Lakers (63-19) Even though teams that lose in the finals usually struggle the next year, the Lakers are my early pick to return to the Finals from the Western Conference. They have good depth and the best starting 5 in the league next year. Last year they didn't even get a full season of Gasol, plus the return of Bynum will make a huge difference. They will just be to big for most teams to hang with, since they should have 3 players in there starting lineup who are at least 6'10.

2) Utah (59-23) It feels like Utah's been extremely close the past couple years, and who's to say this isn't there year? Deron Williams is getting better every year, Boozer is still a force down low, and they have the necessary role players in Kirelenko and Okur. Like the Lakers, they also have a pretty deep bench, and now a good shooter with Kyle Korver.

3) New Orleans (58-24) They kind of suprised me and the rest of the league last year, but that won't happen again. They have the best PG in the league, and all the other pieces they need to be sucessful. They have the dead eye shooter (Stojakovic), a good PF (West), and a good rebounding and defensive center (Chandler). The one thing they don't have in common with all the other Western powerhouses is the depth. Most likely they will fill out there bench with decent players before the season starts.

4) Houston (56-26) The trade for Artest bumped them up over San Antonio, but thats just until the inevitable injury to Yao or McGrady, or both. They have tons of talent on there roster, but are to injury prone. If Yao, McGrady and Artest were guarenteeed to stay healthy through the whol season, I would say that they finish with 63 or more wins, but it's more of a "when" and not a "if" when talking about Houston's injuries.

5) San Antonio (53-29) They're getting older, and slowing down a bit it seems. Still though, I would never ever, ever, bet against them come playoff time. They usually turn it on when it matters, after coasting through the whole season.

6) Phoenix (46-38) They tailed off a bit last year after aquiring Shaq for Marion, and I expect that to continue this year. They changed there style from running to half court, and got a new coach to help the transition. I think they'll fall off a bit this year, and have to fight for there playoff lives at the end of the year.

7) Portland (45-37) They suprised everyone last year with there play of the young guys, and they did it without Oden. I'm not completely sold on Oden however, the kind of injury he had is not one to be taken lightly. Oden says himself that he is still only about 80% healthy, so who knows how effective he can be this year. Basically i'm not sold on Portland in general, and even saying that I think they will still be a playoff team. My guess is that they will finish in 7th, moving up one spot from my previous prediction, because of the injury to Monta Ellis.

8) Dallas (43-39) Dallas had their chance the last couple years and blew it. They are almost completely done in my opinion, and will never get back to the top with the general roster being the same. Howard seems to be on a mission to see how much he can actually do without being traded, and the Kidd trade isn't helping them in any way. They still have Dirk who is definately a star, but as we have learned he is not the kind of star that is a great leader. I almost feel bad for the guy, but thats just the way it is. There reign of being a top team is done for now, but they too move up in my predictions becasue of the injury to Monta Ellis.

9) Denver (42-40) The worst defensive team in the league somehow found a way to get worse this offseason. They traded away the only player on there team who seemed to play any defense what so ever (Marcus Camby) and all they got was a 2nd round pick and some cap relief. They can still outscore just about any team in the league; but with even less defense, this team might be a train wreck.

10) L.A. Clippers (40-42) They replaced an often injured big man, with an often injured PG. The trade off seems about even if both stay healthy, but let's not forget they also lost Maggette and the 20 PPG he brought. If Baron stays healthy they will be decent, but if he gets hurt which is very likely, they really have no one else who can do much of anything besides Thorton. If Baron stays healthy they will win 40, if he go's down it will be bad news for the clippers.

11) Golden State (40-42) As written before, I believe they will make the playoffs this year.That was before the injury to Monta Ellis. He will be out about a month of the season, and could miss up to 30 games.They did replace one scorer with another this offseason, but lost some of the leadership. They seemed to have caught on with the theme to being good in the Western conference and thats depth. Since every game is a struggle to win in the West, the depth is very needed. Unfortuantely for them there best player is down with an injury. If they can hang on without him, they may be able to make a run at the end of the year with a lot of home games, but that seems unlikely.

12) Sacramento (37-45) They are you, and seemingly getting better every year, I just think they don't have quite enough to get into the playoffs this year. Kevin Martin, John Salmons, and Beno Udrih are all players that any team would like to have. Unfortuantely they took a step back by losing Artest, and Brad Miller is still a questionable big man, especially when he is your only one. Next year they might have a shot at the playoffs, but I don't see it this year.

Don't expect much to change with the bottom 3 teams this year. They are so far off from the rest of the Western Conference that it may not be worth even mentioning. Minnesota has Al Jefferson, Memphis has some young Pg's, and Seattle has Durant.. Thats about all there is to tell.

13) Minnesota (24-58)

14) Memphis (24-58)

15) Seattle (19-63)

The Dubz Report

Friday, August 15, 2008

Just sneaking by

1 comment:

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